Grappling: 3.6 takedowns / 15 vs 61% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.1 vs 1.2 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Brunson | Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 39 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Machida has 10 archived five-round fights to Brunson’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MachidaMachida has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 1.6 strikes per minute.
Favors BrunsonBrunson averages 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Machida has stopped 75% of attempts on record.
Favors MachidaBrunson has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Brunson keeps landing takedowns at 3.1 per 15 minutes; if Machida stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
