Pace: 7.1 vs 4.3 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.1 vs 1.4 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Brunson finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Brunson | Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 22 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Brunson has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute; Shahbazyan has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors ShahbazyanBrunson averages 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Shahbazyan has stopped 66% of attempts on record.
Favors ShahbazyanShahbazyan has finished 80% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission), 4 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors ShahbazyanShahbazyan has 4 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Brunson keeps landing takedowns at 3.1 per 15 minutes; if Shahbazyan stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 4.1 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
