Grappling: 3.6 takedowns / 15 vs 69% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.7 vs 6.2 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (29% vs 80% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 3 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Vettori | Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 30 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | #6 Light Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Vettori has 3 archived five-round fights to Costa’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors VettoriCosta lands 6.2 significant strikes per minute to Vettori’s 4.7: a real volume gap.
Favors CostaVettori holds a 2-inch reach edge (74" to 72"); Costa has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors VettoriRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Costa averages 6.2 landed per minute to Vettori at 4.7, so Vettori needs the counters to land clean (45% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
