Danger zone: 2 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.3 vs 3.6 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (6.5 vs 3.1 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 6.5 vs 3.1 landed / min
| Attribute | Green | Dawson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 29 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Green lands 6.5 significant strikes per minute to Dawson’s 3.1: a real volume gap.
Favors GreenDawson averages 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Green has stopped 71% of attempts on record.
Favors GreenGreen has 1 archived five-round fight to Dawson’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors GreenWatch the first takedown attempt from Dawson: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Dawson keeps landing takedowns at 3.6 per 15 minutes; if Green stays upright, the striking rates (6.5 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
