Grappling: 6.5 takedowns / 15 vs 66% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.4 vs 5.5 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (57% vs 20% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 5.5 vs 3.4 landed / min
| Attribute | Dern | Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 38 |
| Height | 5′4″ | 5′3″ |
| Reach | 63″ | 64.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Women's Strawweight Champion | #14 Women's Strawweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hill lands 5.5 significant strikes per minute to Dern’s 3.4: a real volume gap.
Favors HillDern has 2 archived five-round fights to Hill’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors DernHill has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 5 strikes per minute; Dern has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors DernRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Hill averages 5.5 landed per minute to Dern at 3.4, so Dern needs the counters to land clean (41% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
