Distance: 8-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.7 vs 3.4 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (0% vs 57% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 4.7 vs 3.4 landed / min
| Attribute | Xiaonan | Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 29 |
| Height | 5′5″ | 5′4″ |
| Reach | 63″ | 63″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #6 Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight Champion |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Xiaonan lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute to Dern’s 3.4: a real volume gap.
Favors XiaonanDern has finished 57% of archived wins (0 KO/TKO, 4 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors DernDern has 1 archived five-round fight to Xiaonan’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors DernDern has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Xiaonan averages 4.7 landed per minute to Dern at 3.4, so Dern needs the counters to land clean (41% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
