Grappling: 2.9 takedowns / 15 vs 60% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (33% vs 75% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Cruz's wrestling (2.8 takedowns per 15) against Dillashaw's striking is the central exchange: Dillashaw stops 77% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 2 five-round fights
| Attribute | Cruz | Dillashaw |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Dillashaw has 4 archived five-round fights to Cruz’s 2; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors DillashawCruz averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Dillashaw has stopped 77% of attempts on record.
Favors Dillashaw3.9 and 5.1 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (33% vs 41%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Cruz: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Cruz keeps landing takedowns at 2.8 per 15 minutes; if Dillashaw stays upright, the striking rates (3.9 vs 5.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
