Grappling: 4.1 takedowns / 15 vs 71% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Henderson's wrestling (2.4 takedowns per 15) against Masvidal's striking is the central exchange: Masvidal stops 72% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 9 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Henderson | Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 31 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Henderson has 9 archived five-round fights to Masvidal’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HendersonMasvidal holds a 4-inch reach edge (74" to 70"); Henderson has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors MasvidalHenderson averages 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes; Masvidal has stopped 72% of attempts on record.
Favors MasvidalWatch the first takedown attempt from Henderson: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Henderson keeps landing takedowns at 2.4 per 15 minutes; if Masvidal stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 4 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
