Pace: 6.9 vs 3 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (11% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Henderson's wrestling (2.4 takedowns per 15) against Thatch's striking is the central exchange: Thatch stops 50% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 8 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Henderson | Thatch |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 29 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Henderson has 8 archived five-round fights to Thatch’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HendersonThatch holds a 4-inch reach edge (74" to 70"); Henderson has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors ThatchHenderson averages 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes; Thatch has stopped 50% of attempts on record.
Favors ThatchThatch has 2 first-round finishes in the last 2 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Henderson keeps landing takedowns at 2.4 per 15 minutes; if Thatch stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 2.7 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
