Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (6.2 vs 3.9 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Jr. finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Hill | Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 35 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 76.5″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | #4 Light Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Jr. has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 4.3 strikes per minute.
Favors HillHill lands 6.2 significant strikes per minute to Jr.’s 3.9: a real volume gap.
Favors HillHill has 4 archived five-round fights to Jr.’s 2; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HillRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Hill averages 6.2 landed per minute to Jr. at 3.9, so Jr. needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
