Pace: 4.8 vs 1.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (5.2 vs 2.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Souza's wrestling (2.6 takedowns per 15) against Hermansson's striking is the central exchange: Hermansson stops 80% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Hermansson | Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 39 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77.5″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hermansson holds a 6-inch reach edge (77.5" to 72"); Souza has to cross distance to land.
Favors HermanssonHermansson lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute to Souza’s 2.5: a real volume gap.
Favors HermanssonSouza has 2 archived five-round fights to Hermansson’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors SouzaHermansson has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Souza keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Hermansson stays upright, the striking rates (5.2 vs 2.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
