Durability: Rothwell finished 2× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (2.5 vs 3.8 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Souza's wrestling (2.6 takedowns per 15) against Mousasi's striking is the central exchange: Mousasi stops 59% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 4-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Souza | Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 29 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 72″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Mousasi holds a 4-inch reach edge (76" to 72"); Souza has to cross distance to land.
Favors MousasiSouza averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Mousasi has stopped 59% of attempts on record.
Favors MousasiMousasi lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Souza’s 2.5: a real volume gap.
Favors MousasiSouza has 2 first-round finishes in the last 3 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Souza keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Mousasi stays upright, the striking rates (2.5 vs 3.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
