Durability: Brundage finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.4 vs 4.7 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.7 vs 2.3 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (60% vs 25% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 4.7 takedowns / 15 vs 78% defense
| Attribute | Kape | Almabayev |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 31 |
| Height | 5′5″ | 5′4″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 65″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | #2 Flyweight | #7 Flyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Almabayev averages 4.7 takedowns per 15 minutes; Kape has stopped 78% of attempts on record.
Favors KapeKape lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute to Almabayev’s 2.3: a real volume gap.
Favors KapeKape holds a 3-inch reach edge (68" to 65"); Almabayev has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors KapeWatch the first takedown attempt from Almabayev: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Almabayev keeps landing takedowns at 4.7 per 15 minutes; if Kape stays upright, the striking rates (4.7 vs 2.3 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
