Distance: 6-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (50% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Machida | Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Machida has 5 archived five-round fights to Mousasi’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MachidaMousasi holds a 2-inch reach edge (76" to 74"); Machida has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors MousasiMachida has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 1.6 strikes per minute.
Favors MousasiRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 61% and 68%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
