Grappling: 2.9 takedowns / 15 vs 56% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (0% vs 58% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Two grapplers by the numbers (2.8 and 2.5 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 2.8 takedowns / 15 vs 61% defense
| Attribute | Shields | Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 35 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 72″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Shields averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Maia has stopped 61% of attempts on record.
Favors MaiaMaia has finished 58% of archived wins (1 KO/TKO, 6 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors MaiaMaia has 16 archived bouts to Shields’ 6: the deeper book of tape belongs to Maia.
Favors MaiaMaia has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Shields keeps landing takedowns at 2.8 per 15 minutes; if Maia stays upright, the striking rates (2.5 vs 1.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
