Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.1 vs 1.8 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 4.1 takedowns / 15 vs 46% defense
| Attribute | Mendes | Lamas |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 32 |
| Height | 5′6″ | 5′8″ |
| Reach | 66″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Mendes averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lamas has stopped 46% of attempts on record.
Favors LamasLamas holds a 5-inch reach edge (71" to 66"); Mendes has to cross distance to land.
Favors LamasLamas has finished 67% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 2 submission).
Favors LamasMendes has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Mendes keeps landing takedowns at 4.1 per 15 minutes; if Lamas stays upright, the striking rates (2.8 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
