Grappling: 3.4 takedowns / 15 vs 50% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Volume against volume: 4.7 and 5.3 significant strikes per minute. Defense and accuracy, not output, separate them.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Miocic | Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 34 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 80″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Miocic holds a 5-inch reach edge (80" to 75"); Maldonado has to cross distance to land.
Favors MiocicMiocic averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes; Maldonado has stopped 61% of attempts on record.
Favors Maldonado4.7 and 5.3 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (52% vs 58%) decides the exchanges.
Who sets the range in round one: Miocic holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 52% and 53%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
