Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3 vs 0.6 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 4-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Davis | Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 34 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Davis holds a 4-inch reach edge (79" to 75"); Nogueira has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors DavisDavis averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Nogueira has stopped 62% of attempts on record.
Favors NogueiraDavis has finished 50% of archived wins (0 KO/TKO, 2 submission).
Favors DavisWatch the first takedown attempt from Davis: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Davis keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Nogueira stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 2.4 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
