Grappling: 3.1 takedowns / 15 vs 64% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Poirier's output (5.2 per minute) against Johnson's more selective 4.3: pace versus precision.
Supporting evidenceDanger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
| Attribute | Johnson | Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 27 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 73.5″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Poirier has finished 67% of archived wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors PoirierJohnson has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 3.8 strikes per minute.
Favors Poirier4.3 and 5.2 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (39% vs 50%) decides the exchanges.
Poirier has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 58% and 52%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
