Durability: Stephens finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.3 vs 3.3 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (5 vs 3.1 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 7 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Reyes | Weidman |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 35 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | #8 Light Heavyweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Weidman has 7 archived five-round fights to Reyes’ 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors WeidmanWeidman has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 3.4 strikes per minute; Reyes has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors ReyesWeidman averages 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Reyes has stopped 82% of attempts on record.
Favors ReyesReyes has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Weidman keeps landing takedowns at 3.3 per 15 minutes; if Reyes stays upright, the striking rates (5 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
