Danger zone: 100% finish rate
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.7 vs 2.5 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.1 vs 1.7 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (100% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Rockhold | Branch |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rockhold has 6 archived five-round fights to Branch’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors RockholdRockhold lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute to Branch’s 1.7: a real volume gap.
Favors RockholdBranch averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Rockhold has stopped 65% of attempts on record.
Favors RockholdWatch the first takedown attempt from Branch: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Branch keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Rockhold stays upright, the striking rates (4.1 vs 1.7 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
