Grappling: 3.3 takedowns / 15 vs 54% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.7 vs 3.1 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Rodriguez | Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 33 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #6 Featherweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rodriguez has 4 archived five-round fights to Stephens’ 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors RodriguezStephens has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 3.3 strikes per minute.
Favors RodriguezRodriguez lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute to Stephens’ 3.1: a real volume gap.
Favors RodriguezRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Rodriguez averages 4.7 landed per minute to Stephens at 3.1, so Stephens needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
