Distance: 6-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (5.6 vs 0 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.2 vs 3.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 5.6 takedowns / 15 vs 72% defense
| Attribute | Almeida | Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 35 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Almeida averages 5.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Rozenstruik has stopped 72% of attempts on record.
Favors RozenstruikRozenstruik has 4 archived five-round fights to Almeida’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors RozenstruikAlmeida has finished 100% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors AlmeidaAlmeida has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Almeida keeps landing takedowns at 5.6 per 15 minutes; if Rozenstruik stays upright, the striking rates (2.2 vs 3.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
