Danger zone: 2 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (6.2 vs 3.7 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Hill | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 38 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Santos has 6 archived five-round fights to Hill’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors SantosSantos has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 2.6 strikes per minute.
Favors HillHill lands 6.2 significant strikes per minute to Santos’ 3.7: a real volume gap.
Favors HillHill has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Hill averages 6.2 landed per minute to Santos at 3.7, so Santos needs the counters to land clean (48% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
