Durability: Dollaway finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (17% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Rua's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Henderson's striking is the central exchange: Henderson stops 57% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Rua finished 3× on record
| Attribute | Henderson | Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 43 | 32 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rua has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors HendersonRua has finished 100% of archived wins (6 KO/TKO, 0 submission).
Favors RuaRua averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Henderson has stopped 57% of attempts on record.
Favors HendersonWatch the first takedown attempt from Rua: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Rua keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Henderson stays upright, the striking rates (2.4 vs 3.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
