Grappling: 4.9 takedowns / 15 vs 60% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.4 vs 2 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 8 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Smith | Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 36 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rua has 8 archived five-round fights to Smith’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors RuaRua has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors SmithRua averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Smith has stopped 50% of attempts on record.
Favors SmithWatch the first takedown attempt from Rua: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Rua keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Smith stays upright, the striking rates (3.2 vs 3.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
