Distance: 3-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.3 vs 0.7 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Hooker finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Tsarukyan | Hooker |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 35 |
| Height | 5′7″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 72.5″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Rank | #2 Lightweight | #13 Lightweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hooker has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 4.9 strikes per minute; Tsarukyan has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors TsarukyanTsarukyan averages 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Hooker has stopped 77% of attempts on record.
Favors HookerHooker holds a 3-inch reach edge (75" to 72.5"); Tsarukyan has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors HookerWatch the first takedown attempt from Tsarukyan: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Tsarukyan keeps landing takedowns at 3.3 per 15 minutes; if Hooker stays upright, the striking rates (3.9 vs 4.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
