Grappling: 4.4 takedowns / 15 vs 70% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (6.6 vs 5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Ulberg | Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 35 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′4″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Light Heavyweight Champion | #8 Light Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Reyes has 4 archived five-round fights to Ulberg’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors ReyesReyes has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 3.4 strikes per minute.
Favors UlbergUlberg lands 6.6 significant strikes per minute to Reyes’ 5: a real volume gap.
Favors UlbergUlberg has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Ulberg averages 6.6 landed per minute to Reyes at 5, so Reyes needs the counters to land clean (53% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
