Grappling: 2.4 takedowns / 15 vs 47% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.8 vs 2.5 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (67% vs 25% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Lytle | Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 29 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hardy holds a 6-inch reach edge (74" to 68"); Lytle has to cross distance to land.
Favors HardyLytle lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Hardy’s 2.5: a real volume gap.
Favors LytleLytle has 19 archived bouts to Hardy’s 7: the deeper book of tape belongs to Lytle.
Favors LytleWho sets the range in round one: Hardy holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Lytle averages 3.8 landed per minute to Hardy at 2.5, so Hardy needs the counters to land clean (35% accuracy on record).
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
