Durability: Sonnen finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Two grapplers by the numbers (3 and 3 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 3 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Evans | Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 27 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 79″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Evans has 3 archived five-round fights to Davis’ 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors EvansDavis holds a 4-inch reach edge (79" to 75"); Evans has to cross distance to land.
Favors DavisDavis averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Evans has stopped 73% of attempts on record.
Favors EvansWatch the first takedown attempt from Evans: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Evans keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Davis stays upright, the striking rates (2.1 vs 2.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
