Durability: Gonzaga finished 5× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (0% vs 67% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Henderson's wrestling (2.4 takedowns per 15) against Thomson's striking is the central exchange: Thomson stops 54% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Henderson | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 35 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Henderson has 5 archived five-round fights to Thomson’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HendersonHenderson averages 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes; Thomson has stopped 54% of attempts on record.
Favors ThomsonThomson has finished 67% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 0 submission).
Favors ThomsonWatch the first takedown attempt from Henderson: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Henderson keeps landing takedowns at 2.4 per 15 minutes; if Thomson stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
