Grappling: 2.6 takedowns / 15 vs 57% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.1 vs 2.6 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (100% vs 50% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 8 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Rockhold | Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 36 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Machida has 8 archived five-round fights to Rockhold’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MachidaRockhold has finished 100% of archived wins (1 KO/TKO, 2 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 4.
Favors RockholdRockhold lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute to Machida’s 2.6: a real volume gap.
Favors RockholdRockhold has 2 first-round finishes in the last 4 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Rockhold averages 4.1 landed per minute to Machida at 2.6, so Machida needs the counters to land clean (53% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
