Durability: Oliveira finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (2.5 vs 0.6 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (1.8 vs 3.7 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Maia | Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 32 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 72″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Condit has 5 archived five-round fights to Maia’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors ConditCondit lands 3.7 significant strikes per minute to Maia’s 1.8: a real volume gap.
Favors ConditCondit holds a 3-inch reach edge (75" to 72"); Maia has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors ConditWatch the first takedown attempt from Maia: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Maia keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Condit stays upright, the striking rates (1.8 vs 3.7 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
