Pace: 4.9 vs 2.8 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.6 vs 1.9 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Nogueira finished 3× on record
| Attribute | Werdum | Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 37 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Nogueira has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 2.4 strikes per minute.
Favors WerdumWerdum lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute to Nogueira’s 1.9: a real volume gap.
Favors WerdumNogueira has 2 archived five-round fights to Werdum’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors NogueiraWerdum has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Werdum averages 3.6 landed per minute to Nogueira at 1.9, so Nogueira needs the counters to land clean (42% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
