The market provider is not connected in this environment. No prices are estimated in its absence.
Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Submission · R4 · 2:38
Islam MakhachevRound 4Thiago Moisés
7 / 10Sig. strikes3 / 8
70%Accuracy38%
33 / 44Total strikes3 / 8
0Knockdowns0
1 / 2Takedowns0 / 0
1Sub. attempts0
2:00Control0:00
2.7Pace / min1.1
100%Control share0%
Islam Makhachev
Targethead 100% · body 0% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 43% · clinch 0% · ground 57%
Thiago Moisés
Targethead 67% · body 0% · leg 33%
Phasedistance 100% · clinch 0% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeIslam Makhachev landed 7 significant strikes to 3.Control edgeIslam Makhachev held 120s of control to 0s.Striking edgeIslam Makhachev struck at 70% accuracy to 38%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R3
Pace upIslam Makhachev's significant-strike pace moved +33% from R3 to R4, 2.7 against 2.0 per minute.
Accuracy shiftIslam Makhachev's significant-strike accuracy moved +14 pts, 70% against 56%.
Target shiftIslam Makhachev's head share of landed strikes moved +60 pts, to 100% head with 0% body and 0% leg.
Phase shiftIslam Makhachev's ground share of landed strikes moved +57 pts, to 57% on the ground against 43% at distance.
Defensive driftIslam Makhachev absorbed significant strikes +90% faster than in R3, 1.1 against 0.6 per minute.
Pace upThiago Moisés's significant-strike pace moved +90% from R3 to R4, 1.1 against 0.6 per minute.
Target shiftThiago Moisés's head share of landed strikes moved +67 pts, to 67% head with 0% body and 33% leg.
Control swingThiago Moisés's control time moved -95s, 0s against 95s.
Defensive driftThiago Moisés absorbed significant strikes +33% faster than in R3, 2.7 against 2.0 per minute.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Islam Makhachev
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Thiago Moisés
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
61Islam Makhachev sig. strikes
13Thiago Moisés sig. strikes
4rounds observed
+90%largest pace swing, R3 to R4 (Thiago Moisés)
R1
R2
R3
R4
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
