Referee · Chris TognoniCecil Peoples · 27-30Adalaide Byrd · 30-27Mark Smith · 27-30Source · UFC Stats · round stats archived
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Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Split Decision · R3 · 5:00
Jamie VarnerRound 3Melvin Guillard
3 / 11Sig. strikes12 / 26
27%Accuracy46%
28 / 49Total strikes16 / 30
0Knockdowns0
4 / 6Takedowns0 / 0
0Sub. attempts1
2:29Control0:55
0.6Pace / min2.4
73%Control share27%
Jamie Varner
Targethead 100% · body 0% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 67% · clinch 33% · ground 0%
Melvin Guillard
Targethead 58% · body 42% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 50% · clinch 8% · ground 42%
Statistical signals
Output edgeMelvin Guillard landed 12 significant strikes to 3.Control edgeJamie Varner held 149s of control to 55s.Striking edgeMelvin Guillard struck at 46% accuracy to 27%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Pace downJamie Varner's significant-strike pace moved -73% from R2 to R3, 0.6 against 2.2 per minute.
Target shiftJamie Varner's head share of landed strikes moved +18 pts, to 100% head with 0% body and 0% leg.
Grappling pressureJamie Varner attempted 4 more takedowns than in R2, 6 against 2.
Control swingJamie Varner's control time moved +75s, 149s against 74s.
Pace downMelvin Guillard's significant-strike pace moved -54% from R2 to R3, 2.4 against 5.2 per minute.
Phase shiftMelvin Guillard's ground share of landed strikes moved +42 pts, to 42% on the ground against 50% at distance.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Jamie Varner
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Melvin Guillard
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
32Jamie Varner sig. strikes
57Melvin Guillard sig. strikes
3rounds observed
-73%largest pace swing, R2 to R3 (Jamie Varner)
R1
R2
R3
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
