The market provider is not connected in this environment. No prices are estimated in its absence.
Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00
Rory MacDonaldRound 3Nate Diaz
14 / 34Sig. strikes5 / 8
41%Accuracy63%
24 / 46Total strikes24 / 27
0Knockdowns0
4 / 4Takedowns0 / 4
0Sub. attempts0
3:27Control0:34
2.8Pace / min1.0
86%Control share14%
Rory MacDonald
Targethead 93% · body 0% · leg 7%
Phasedistance 7% · clinch 0% · ground 93%
Nate Diaz
Targethead 20% · body 20% · leg 60%
Phasedistance 20% · clinch 80% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeRory MacDonald landed 14 significant strikes to 5.Control edgeRory MacDonald held 207s of control to 34s.Striking edgeNate Diaz struck at 63% accuracy to 41%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Accuracy shiftRory MacDonald's significant-strike accuracy moved -11 pts, 41% against 52%.
Target shiftRory MacDonald's head share of landed strikes moved +43 pts, to 93% head with 0% body and 7% leg.
Phase shiftRory MacDonald's ground share of landed strikes moved +86 pts, to 93% on the ground against 7% at distance.
Control swingRory MacDonald's control time moved +147s, 207s against 60s.
Pace downNate Diaz's significant-strike pace moved -64% from R2 to R3, 1.0 against 2.8 per minute.
Accuracy shiftNate Diaz's significant-strike accuracy moved +19 pts, 63% against 44%.
Target shiftNate Diaz's head share of landed strikes moved -37 pts, to 20% head with 20% body and 60% leg.
Grappling pressureNate Diaz attempted 3 more takedowns than in R2, 4 against 1.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Rory MacDonald
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Nate Diaz
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
42Rory MacDonald sig. strikes
26Nate Diaz sig. strikes
3rounds observed
+100%largest pace swing, R1 to R2 (Nate Diaz)
R1
R2
R3
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
