Kevin Vallejos's finishing rate is the number that matters against Aljamain Sterling

• Record: Aljamain Sterling 26-5-0 · Kevin Vallejos 18-1-0
• Age: Aljamain Sterling 37 · Kevin Vallejos 24
• Height: Aljamain Sterling 5'7" · Kevin Vallejos 5'7"
• Reach: Aljamain Sterling 71" · Kevin Vallejos 68"
• Stance: Aljamain Sterling Orthodox · Kevin Vallejos Switch
• Listed weight: Aljamain Sterling 146 lbs · Kevin Vallejos 145 lbs

Range is the first thing the tape flags: Aljamain Sterling holds 3 inches of reach (71" to 68"), which sets the distance Kevin Vallejos has to cross to land. A reach edge matters most when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here the numbers cut the other way: Kevin Vallejos out-lands Sterling 6.12 to 4.26 per minute, so the shorter fighter is the busier one and has to cross the gap to do it. That is a different fight from a long fighter picking apart a passive one. Kevin Vallejos is the younger by 13 years (24 to 37). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. Kevin Vallejos is listed as a switch-stance fighter, so his lead side can change through the fight and the opponent's setups have to work in both directions.

Recent form

Aljamain Sterling has 23 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 18 wins and 5 losses. 6 of those wins came inside the distance (2 by KO/TKO and 4 by submission), a 33% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished twice in the archive. He last fought on Apr 25, 2026 and beat Youssef Zalal by unanimous decision in round 5. That puts him 210 days out by fight night.

• W vs Youssef Zalal — unanimous decision, R5 (Apr 25, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal)
• W vs Brian Ortega — unanimous decision, R5 (Aug 23, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang)
• L vs Movsar Evloev — unanimous decision, R3 (Dec 7, 2024, UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura)
• W vs Calvin Kattar — unanimous decision, R3 (Apr 13, 2024, UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill)
• L vs Sean O'Malley — KO/TKO, R2 (Aug 19, 2023, UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley)

Our archive has 6 completed UFC bouts for Kevin Vallejos, 5 wins and 1 loss. 4 of those wins came inside the distance (4 by KO/TKO), a 80% finish rate on archived wins. The loss went to the scorecards. Most recently he beat Josh Emmett by KO/TKO in round 1 on Mar 14, 2026. That puts him 252 days out by fight night.

• W vs Josh Emmett — KO/TKO, R1 (Mar 14, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos)
• W vs Giga Chikadze — KO/TKO, R2 (Dec 14, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape)
• W vs Danny Silva — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 2, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park)
• W vs SeungWoo Choi — KO/TKO, R1 (Mar 15, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2)
• W vs Cam Teague — KO/TKO, R1 (Sep 25, 2024, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 7)

Kevin Vallejos ends 80% of archived wins early against 33% for Aljamain Sterling; with Aljamain Sterling finished twice in 23 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Aljamain Sterling lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy; Kevin Vallejos lands 6.12 at 48%. That 1.86-per-minute gap in Kevin Vallejos's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Aljamain Sterling absorbs 2.15 per minute with 59% striking defence and Kevin Vallejos absorbs 4.41 with 57%.

On the ground, Aljamain Sterling averages 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes at 32% accuracy and defends 44% of attempts against him; Kevin Vallejos averages 0.66 at 28% and defends 84%. Kevin Vallejos's 40-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 70 archived rounds of Aljamain Sterling's: 1407 of 2675 significant strikes landed (53%), 20.1 per round, 56 of 174 takedowns, 109:35 of control time. Round-level PropSports data exists for 7 archived rounds of Kevin Vallejos's: 160 of 343 significant strikes landed (47%), 22.9 per round, 2 of 6 takedowns, 3:25 of control time and 4 knockdowns. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

The counter-case is mostly about sample. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, Aljamain Sterling's 3 inches of reach is the one material physical edge, and what it is worth depends on pace figures our tables do hold. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory, round betting and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Fighter pages: Aljamain Sterling, Kevin Vallejos.