Grant Dawson's finishing rate is the number that matters against Nurullo Aliev

Our archive has 5 completed UFC bouts for Nurullo Aliev, 5 wins. 1 of those wins came inside the distance (1 by KO/TKO), a 20% finish rate on archived wins. He last fought on Jul 25, 2026 and beat Mike Davis by unanimous decision in round 3. That is 91 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.

• W vs Mike Davis — unanimous decision, R3 (Jul 25, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov)
• W vs Shem Rock — unanimous decision, R3 (Nov 22, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker)
• W vs Joe Solecki — unanimous decision, R3 (Jan 11, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2)
• W vs Rafael Alves — majority decision, R3 (Feb 25, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen)
• W vs Josh Wick — KO/TKO, R1 (Sep 21, 2022, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9)

Grant Dawson ends 62% of archived wins early against 20% for Nurullo Aliev; with Nurullo Aliev never finished in 5 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Grant Dawson lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy; Nurullo Aliev lands 2.29 at 44%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Grant Dawson absorbs 2.14 per minute with 44% striking defence and Nurullo Aliev absorbs 1.59 with 55%. Nurullo Aliev's 11-point defence edge is the number to hold against the pace figures: it decides how much of the opponent's output actually lands.

On the ground, Grant Dawson averages 3.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at 39% accuracy and defends 66% of attempts against him; Nurullo Aliev averages 3.48 at 51% and defends 80%. Nurullo Aliev's 14-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges. Grant Dawson attempts 1.4 submissions per 15 minutes, the higher rate of the two, so any ground time carries a finishing threat.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 35 archived rounds of Grant Dawson's: 493 of 938 significant strikes landed (53%), 14.1 per round, 40 of 102 takedowns, 103:18 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level PropSports data exists for 12 archived rounds of Nurullo Aliev's: 118 of 284 significant strikes landed (42%), 9.8 per round, 14 of 24 takedowns, 35:13 of control time. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Here is where the read could be wrong. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the finishing pattern is the strongest signal: Grant Dawson 8 of 13 archived wins early. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance and method of victory markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev · Full card: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Fighter pages: Grant Dawson, Nurullo Aliev.