Joshua Van’s volume meets Alexandre Pantoja’s grappling leverage in UFC 331 rematch

For the betting markets, Van’s volume supports his moneyline case and makes significant-strike props relevant. It does not automatically support a stoppage wager. Van has four KO/TKO wins and six decisions across his 10 victories in the 11-bout archive, with no submission wins. His fifth-round finish of Tatsuro Taira in May shows that his offense can produce a late stoppage, but his wider sample still contains more decision wins than finishes.

Pantoja’s path runs through repeated grappling transitions

Pantoja averages 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47 percent accuracy, compared with Van’s 0.82 takedowns and 61 percent accuracy. The latter percentage comes from only eight landed takedowns across Van’s 11 archived bouts, so it says little about how often he wants to wrestle. Pantoja has landed 40 takedowns in 18 archived bouts and compiled 69 minutes of control across 48 rounds.

The more important difference appears after the entry. Pantoja averages one submission attempt per 15 minutes and has recorded 14 attempts in the round-level archive. Six of his 14 wins in that sample came by submission, with another six by decision and two by KO/TKO. His offense can therefore convert grappling success into either a finish or extended scoring control.

Van’s 75 percent takedown defense argues against treating that route as automatic. If he forces Pantoja to chain attempts together, disengages quickly and returns to open space, Pantoja may have to absorb a high number of strikes just to reach his preferred phase. But takedown defense alone does not capture what happens after one successful entry. Pantoja’s combination of control time and submission activity creates a different risk than an opponent seeking occasional top-position minutes.

This is where the Pantoja moneyline and method-of-victory markets connect. A Pantoja bet is fundamentally a bet that his grappling can erase Van’s striking-volume advantage. His submission route is supported by a meaningful 18-bout archive, but Van has been finished only once in his 11 archived UFC bouts. That durability record argues against assuming that one or two successful takedowns will end the contest.

The first result should not drive the rematch price

Van’s official first-round win over Pantoja belongs in the record, but its predictive value is limited because the injury prevented the matchup from developing. Bettors should resist treating the rematch as either a repeat of a Van stoppage or an automatic correction in Pantoja’s favor.

The evidence since then belongs mainly to Van. He stopped Taira in the fifth round on May 9 and returns after 133 days. Pantoja has not competed since the December loss and enters after 287 days away. That changes the information balance: Van has supplied five more rounds against an elite flyweight opponent, while Pantoja’s post-injury form has not been tested in competition.

Pantoja’s preceding run remains substantial. Before facing Van, he submitted Kai Kara-France in the third round and Kai Asakura in the second, after consecutive five-round decisions over Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval. He has won 14 of 18 archived bouts and has been finished once. The layoff creates uncertainty, but it does not erase a record built through several different win conditions.

Van is 12 years younger, yet activity can cut both ways. His recent schedule supplies current evidence and suggests comfort sustaining pace deep into a fight. It also leaves less recovery time than Pantoja’s 287-day interval. The packet provides no direct evidence that either schedule has helped or hurt physical performance, so neither should become a standalone betting thesis.

The betting decision is about phase control, not the prior winner

At -135 to -143, Van is priced as the favorite but not as an overwhelming one. His case is strongest when built around sustained striking minutes: higher output, better accuracy, better striking defense and a recent fifth-round finish. Pantoja at +120 offers plus-money exposure to the more developed grappling and submission game, backed by 40 takedowns, 69 control minutes and six submission wins in the archived sample.

The strongest argument against Van is that his striking advantage can disappear during long grappling sequences. The strongest argument against Pantoja is that failed entries would leave a 49 percent striking defense exposed to a fighter landing 8.43 significant strikes per minute.

Distance markets remain less clear. Van has six decision wins among 10 archived victories, while Pantoja has six among 14. Both have also shown credible finishing routes, and each has been finished once. Without a verified total or distance price in the packet, that history identifies the competing mechanisms but not a wager with demonstrated value.

The practical edge is price discipline. A Van bettor can take -135 rather than -143, while a Pantoja bettor can take +120 rather than +115 or +116. Beyond that shopping advantage, the rematch turns on an unresolved question the first meeting never answered: whether Van’s takedown defense can preserve enough striking time for his volume to decide five rounds.