Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon: lightweight prelim preview at UFC 333

• W vs Milos Janicic — submission, R1 (Aug 1, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez)

Style and statistical matchup

Kody Steele lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute at 32% accuracy; Noah Gugnon lands 3.7 at 45%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Kody Steele absorbs 6.2 per minute with 52% striking defence and Noah Gugnon absorbs 4.44 with 68%. Noah Gugnon is the harder fighter to hit on both measures, which is the profile that makes an opponent's volume less useful than it looks.

On the ground, Kody Steele averages 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes at 25% accuracy and defends 100% of attempts against him; Noah Gugnon averages 0 at 0% and defends 0%. Kody Steele's 100-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges. Noah Gugnon attempts 11.1 submissions per 15 minutes, the higher rate of the two, so any ground time carries a finishing threat.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 4 archived rounds of Kody Steele's: 60 of 210 significant strikes landed (29%), 15 per round, 2 of 5 takedowns, 1:50 of control time. Round-level PropSports data exists for 1 archived round of Noah Gugnon's: 5 of 11 significant strikes landed (45%), 5 per round, 0 of 0 takedowns, 0:40 of control time. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Here is where the read could be wrong. Noah Gugnon has only 1 archived UFC bout in the PropBetEdge database, so the form read is thin. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, neither fighter carries a material edge into this one; the tape is close and the archive does not separate them. The uncertainty is mostly about coverage: archive shorter than 3 bouts for Noah Gugnon. What to monitor: the weigh-in, the scheduled-rounds confirmation, and the opening price once one exists, because no market is singled out here. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon · Full card: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Fighter pages: Kody Steele, Noah Gugnon.