Niko Price's finishing rate is the number that matters against Leon Shahbazyan

The setup

Niko Price (16-11-0 (2 NC)) and Leon Shahbazyan (12-5-0) meet at welterweight on the prelims when UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan arrives at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 10, 2026, scheduled for three rounds.

Our schedule tables list 9 bouts on the card; this one is filed under the prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether the finishing pattern in our archive makes this a fight that ends early, and what that does to the distance and method markets. Career-to-date round statistics are on file for both fighters.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Niko Price 16-11-0 (2 NC) · Leon Shahbazyan 12-5-0
• Age: Niko Price 37 · Leon Shahbazyan 30
• Height: Niko Price 6'0" · Leon Shahbazyan 6'4"
• Reach: Niko Price 76" · Leon Shahbazyan 74.5"
• Stance: Niko Price Orthodox · Leon Shahbazyan Orthodox
• Listed weight: Niko Price 171 lbs · Leon Shahbazyan 170 lbs

Reach is close to even (76" to 74.5"), so neither fighter starts with a length edge and the striking exchanges begin from the same distance. Leon Shahbazyan is the younger by 7 years (30 to 37). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Niko Price has 21 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 8 wins, 11 losses and 2 no contests. 6 of those wins came inside the distance (4 by KO/TKO and 2 by submission), a 75% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 9 times in the archive. He last fought on Mar 28, 2026 and lost to Michael Chiesa by submission in round 1. That puts him 196 days out by fight night.

• L vs Michael Chiesa — submission, R1 (Mar 28, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer)
• L vs Nikolay Veretennikov — KO/TKO, R1 (Feb 7, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira)
• L vs Jacobe Smith — submission, R2 (Jun 28, 2025, UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira)
• L vs Themba Gorimbo — unanimous decision, R3 (Oct 12, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira)
• W vs Alex Morono — unanimous decision, R3 (Jun 1, 2024, UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier)

Leon Shahbazyan has 2 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 0 wins and 2 losses. He has been finished twice in the archive, every loss ending early. Most recently he lost to Levan Chokheli by KO/TKO in round 1 on Jun 20, 2026. That is 112 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.

• L vs Levan Chokheli — KO/TKO, R1 (Jun 20, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2)
• L vs Phil Rowe — KO/TKO, R3 (Aug 21, 2019, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 3, Week 9)

Style and statistical matchup

Niko Price lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy; Leon Shahbazyan lands 6.1 at 52%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Niko Price absorbs 5.57 per minute with 48% striking defence and Leon Shahbazyan absorbs 8.45 with 33%. Niko Price is the harder fighter to hit on both measures, which is the profile that makes an opponent's volume less useful than it looks.

On the ground, Niko Price averages 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes at 30% accuracy and defends 50% of attempts against him; Leon Shahbazyan averages 1.41 at 50% and defends 0%. Niko Price's 50-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 41 archived rounds of Niko Price's: 870 of 2010 significant strikes landed (43%), 21.2 per round, 12 of 40 takedowns, 25:11 of control time and 5 knockdowns. Round-level PropSports data exists for 4 archived rounds of Leon Shahbazyan's: 65 of 125 significant strikes landed (52%), 16.3 per round, 1 of 2 takedowns, 0:00 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Here is where the read could be wrong. Leon Shahbazyan has only 2 archived UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge database, so the form read is thin. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the finishing pattern is the strongest signal: Niko Price 6 of 8 archived wins early. The uncertainty is mostly about coverage: archive shorter than 3 bouts for Leon Shahbazyan. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the moneyline, fight goes the distance, method of victory, round betting and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Fighter pages: Niko Price, Leon Shahbazyan.