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Why Tom Nolan's takedown defence is the key variable against Renato Moicano
Can Tom Nolan keep the fight standing against Renato Moicano's 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes? What the tape, the archive and the round statistics say ahead of UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan on Oct 31, 2026, and which markets the answer touches.
- WChris DuncanSUB R2 · Apr 26
- LBeneil DariushU-DEC R3 · Jun 25
- LIslam Makhachev
The setup
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan lands on Saturday, October 31, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, and the main event is Renato Moicano (21-7-1) against Tom Nolan (11-1-0) at lightweight, scheduled for five rounds.
Our schedule tables list 11 bouts on the card. Five scheduled rounds is the format detail that matters most for the markets: it doubles the time a finish can arrive in and changes what a total-rounds line means. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.
The question this preview works through is whether Tom Nolan can keep the fight where 58% takedown defence says it will struggle to stay, against a 1.68-takedowns-per-15 opponent. Career-to-date round statistics are on file for both fighters, so that comparison is two-sided.
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Tale of the tape
- Record: Renato Moicano 21-7-1 · Tom Nolan 11-1-0
- Age: Renato Moicano 37 · Tom Nolan 26
- Height: Renato Moicano 5'11" · Tom Nolan 6'3"
- Reach: Renato Moicano 72" · Tom Nolan 73"
- Stance: Renato Moicano Orthodox · Tom Nolan Southpaw
- Listed weight: Renato Moicano 156 lbs · Tom Nolan 155 lbs
Reach is close to even (72" to 73"), so neither fighter starts with a length edge and the striking exchanges begin from the same distance. Tom Nolan is the younger by 11 years (26 to 37). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. It is an orthodox-versus-southpaw pairing: lead legs line up on the outside, which rewards the rear straight and the rear kick and makes the calf-kick battle a live one.
Recent form
Our archive has 20 completed UFC bouts for Renato Moicano, 13 wins and 7 losses. 9 of those wins came inside the distance (2 by KO/TKO and 7 by submission), a 69% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 5 times in the archive. Most recently he beat Chris Duncan by submission in round 2 on Apr 4, 2026. That puts him 210 days out by fight night.
- W vs Chris Duncan — submission, R2 (Apr 4, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan)
- L vs Beneil Dariush — unanimous decision, R3 (Jun 28, 2025, UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira)
- L vs Islam Makhachev — submission, R1 (Jan 18, 2025, UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano)
- W vs Benoît Saint Denis — KO/TKO, R2 (Sep 28, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis)
- W vs Jalin Turner — KO/TKO, R2 (Apr 13, 2024, UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill)
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