Distance: 2-inch reach difference
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The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Lopes's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Ribeiro's striking is the central exchange: Ribeiro stops 32% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 7-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Lopes | Ribeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 26 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 81″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Ribeiro holds a 7-inch reach edge (81" to 74"); Lopes has to cross distance to land.
Favors RibeiroLopes averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Ribeiro has stopped 32% of attempts on record.
Favors Ribeiro2.9 and 2.9 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (44% vs 40%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Lopes: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Lopes keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Ribeiro stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 2.9 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
