Pace: 2.3 vs 1.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (2.5 vs 0.9 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (62% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Shamrock finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Ortiz | Shamrock |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 42 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Shamrock has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 4.3 strikes per minute.
Favors OrtizShamrock has finished 100% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 5 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors ShamrockOrtiz averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Shamrock has stopped 44% of attempts on record.
Favors ShamrockShamrock has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Ortiz keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Shamrock stays upright, the striking rates (2.6 vs 1.5 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
