Grappling: 3.5 takedowns / 15 vs 60% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 2.5 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Tanner finished 5× on record
| Attribute | Grove | Tanner |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 37 |
| Height | 6′6″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Tanner has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 2.6 strikes per minute.
Favors GroveGrove holds a 5-inch reach edge (79" to 74"); Tanner has to cross distance to land.
Favors GroveTanner averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Grove has stopped 56% of attempts on record.
Favors GroveTanner has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Tanner keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Grove stays upright, the striking rates (2.3 vs 3 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
