Pace: 2.8 vs 0.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (2 vs 3.8 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (25% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Serra's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Lytle's striking is the central exchange: Lytle stops 55% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidencePace: 3.8 vs 2 landed / min
| Attribute | Serra | Lytle |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 5′6″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lytle lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Serra’s 2: a real volume gap.
Favors LytleSerra averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lytle has stopped 55% of attempts on record.
Favors LytleSerra has been finished 1 time in the archive and absorbs 2.6 strikes per minute.
Favors LytleWatch the first takedown attempt from Serra: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Serra keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Lytle stays upright, the striking rates (2 vs 3.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
