Grappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 54% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.6 vs 1.4 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (44% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.6 takedowns / 15 vs 63% defense
| Attribute | Fitch | Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 28 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Fitch averages 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Thiago has stopped 63% of attempts on record.
Favors Thiago2.6 and 1.7 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (50% vs 39%) decides the exchanges.
Fitch has 10 archived bouts to Thiago’s 1: the deeper book of tape belongs to Fitch.
Favors FitchWatch the first takedown attempt from Fitch: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Fitch keeps landing takedowns at 3.6 per 15 minutes; if Thiago stays upright, the striking rates (2.6 vs 1.7 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
