Danger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Couture's wrestling (2.8 takedowns per 15) against Nogueira's striking is the central exchange: Nogueira stops 36% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Couture finished 6× on record
| Attribute | Nogueira | Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 46 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Couture has been finished 6 times in the archive and absorbs 1.5 strikes per minute.
Favors NogueiraCouture has 19 archived bouts to Nogueira’s 3: the deeper book of tape belongs to Couture.
Favors CoutureCouture averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Nogueira has stopped 36% of attempts on record.
Favors NogueiraWatch the first takedown attempt from Couture: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Couture keeps landing takedowns at 2.8 per 15 minutes; if Nogueira stays upright, the striking rates (1.9 vs 2.9 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
