Grappling: 5.1 takedowns / 15 vs 70% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (43% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Rua's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Machida's striking is the central exchange: Machida stops 75% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 2-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Machida | Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 27 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rua holds a 2-inch reach edge (76" to 74"); Machida has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors RuaRua averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Machida has stopped 75% of attempts on record.
Favors Machida2.6 and 3.6 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (53% vs 50%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Rua: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Rua keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Machida stays upright, the striking rates (2.6 vs 3.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
